New Discoveries

Surfing the net on a 1x1 1/2 inch phone screen with no video
capabilities is not a lot of fun, but once in a while your search pays
dirt and you are in for some surprises. One of those is AJ Marks
creations. I've been hooked to his stories based on the original
Battlestar Galactica. Look him up at www.ajstories.com and check out
some of his stories, you may be in for a pleasant surprise.

How We Got Into This Money Mess?

Came across this article and loved the simple simon way it explained
this economic mess were in.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:08:29 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: CNN - Commentary: How we got into this money mess
To: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>
Cc: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>

Sent from michaelrivera0619@gmail.com's mobile device from http://www.cnn.com.

Commentary: How we got into this money mess

"Greed is good."

At least, that's what Michael Douglas' character Gordon Gekko claimed
in the movie Wall Street. But, just like Gekko, the modern-day
companies that followed that motto now find themselves wondering how
everything could collapse so fast.

You know the names by now: Countrywide Financial, Bear Stearns,
IndyMac, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG. And that's not
even counting companies like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman
Sachs that, while still in existence, have lost untold billions in
market value and have laid off thousands of employees.

Maybe greed isn't so good after all.

Lehman was founded in 1844 when Henry Lehman, a German immigrant,
opened a small shop in Montgomery, Alabama. His brothers joined him
six years later and, by 1858 they were busy turning cotton provided by
local farmers into a cash crop -- a business that didn't have anything
to do with helping low-income families afford 27-bedroom McMansions.

More than 150 years later, after surviving the Great Depression, Black
Monday, the savings and loan crisis and the dot-com bust, Lehman
Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection. They had gone 14 years as a
public company without ever reporting a single quarterly loss. Now
they will never again post a profit.

Bear Stearns' story is eerily similar. Founded in 1923. Survived every
crisis. Never posted a quarterly loss until last year. Gone without a
trace.

So how did 235 years of rock-solid American finance disappear
virtually overnight? Well, it's not as complicated as you think. If
you replace all of the acronyms invented by the brainiacs on Wall
Street with references to things that Main Street understands, it
becomes a lot easier to see how it all happened. Here's a quick story
I invented that does just that.

(Note to any Wall Street executives who might be reading this: I know
this simple little story isn't perfect, but let's remember that you're
the ones who tried to make everything complicated and I'm the one who
still has a job.)

It's just before Christmas,1996, and as you watch overeager parents
trample each other to buy Tickle Me Elmo dolls for their kids, you see
an opportunity. "This isn't a Tickle Me Elmo bubble," you think to
yourself, "this is a long-term trend. Every person in America will
soon own a Tickle Me Elmo, maybe even two. It's the American dream."

You approach your local banker about a loan and, naturally, he loves
your idea. In fact, he loves it so much that for every $1 you have in
your account, he's willing to lend you $34. Great deal, you think, as
you max out your credit line and buy as many Tickle Me Elmos as you
possibly can.

Sales are easy at first. People are lining up to buy your dolls and
the prices are going far higher than you ever thought. The only person
happier than you is your banker.

But the following year something unexpected happens: Kids stop asking
for Tickle Me Elmos. You try to cut the price, but no buyers show up.
You cut the price more, but your store remains empty.

Panic sets in.

You're pretty sure that this downturn is just temporary (after all,
who wouldn't want a Tickle Me Elmo?) but you're quickly running out of
cash. Your only option is to buy time and hope that Tickle Me Elmos
start flying off your shelves again.

You visit every bank in town and, using your piles of Tickle Me Elmo
dolls as collateral (which, of course, you purchased with money you
didn't have) you get as much new capital as possible.

Soon that money is also gone. Even your friends and family refuse to
give you any more loans. At the end of your rope, you go to your town
council, which gives you a "bridge loan" to get you through the next
few months (something that makes your Furby-selling competitors
extremely upset).

Unfortunately, no matter how much you borrow, there's still one
nagging little problem: No one wants to buy your stupid Tickle Me Elmo
dolls anymore.

The longer you wait, the less they're worth. You sell some for pennies
on the dollar, but pretty soon you can't even do that. Then things get
even worse: News breaks that China is poisoning some Tickle Me Elmos
before shipping them to the United States. Now your dolls are not just
out of favor, they're toxic. You literally can't even give them away.

Soon the rest of your money dries up, as do the people who are willing
to lend you any more of it. Now you're out of cash; out of a job, and,
if not for the pile of poisonous Tickle Me Elmo dolls in your
basement, completely alone -- which sounds kind of like the CEOs of
Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.

Believe it or not, this ridiculous story may be far from reality, but
it's not that far off from describing what these financial and
mortgage companies did to themselves. Just replace the Tickle Me Elmo
references with the once popular, then discounted, now completely
toxic subprime mortgages and you're pretty much there.

When you cut through all the noise about "bridge loans" and "discount
windows," what you're left with is the fact that too many companies
still own way too many Tickle Me Elmos that no one wants to buy.
Giving those companies more money doesn't solve anything, it just buys
time. Unless and until the underlying problem is fixed, no real
turnaround can happen.

But we all know that investors (and elected leaders worried about
their careers this November) aren't all that patient. That's why the
new chorus you're likely to soon hear will be from people arguing that
the only way out of this mess is for the federal government to step in
and purchase all of the toxic mortgages themselves. That would allow
the companies with eyes bigger than their balance sheets to start
over, with barely any repercussions whatsoever and without ever taking
responsibility for their mistakes.

Come to think of it, maybe greed isn't so bad after all.

Would the government actually consider that idea? They already are. In
fact, the only thing stopping politicians from "rewarding" us with a
new government agency that will put billions more of our tax dollars
at stake is, ironically enough, the election of new politicians.

Disclaimer: Tickle Me Elmo is still an extremely popular, non-toxic
product and, to the best of my knowledge, is not responsible for the
credit crisis.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer.

CNN - Commentary: What to expect from McCain, Obama in 56 days

Hey, here is a good reason also why I stopped. After reading the
papers I find my ideas (or is it theirs?) mirroring each other. So
instead of doing the work that someone else is doing I'd rather spend
some time knowing myself. Besides, while the elections will be done in
the next two months my life will continue beyond that... at least I
hope so.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 9 Sep 2008 13:16:54 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: CNN - Commentary: What to expect from McCain, Obama in 56 days
To: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>

Sent from michaelrivera0619@gmail.com's mobile device from http://www.cnn.com.

Commentary: What to expect from McCain, Obama in 56 days

Now that both conventions are over, Labor Day is behind us and the
kids are back in school, let's take a look at how the last 56 days of
the fall campaign may shape up:

What to look for from John McCain

I still think McCain's choice of Gov. Sarah Palin was insane from a
governing point of view, but she has clearly energized the
conservative base of the GOP -- folks who have always been leery of
McCain. Her selection and the relentlessly negative convention have
fired up McCain's base.

The party of Reagan -- sunny optimism, criticism offered in folksy
witticisms and the shake of a head -- is gone. This is the party of
Giuliani and Palin: sarcastic, sneering, snotty and snide. I don't
know why, but meanness plays with the GOP base.

But the right-wing base alone will not win this race. McCain needs to
move to the middle, and the Palin pick makes that tougher. So expect
him to send Palin to small markets, use her to fire up the
right-wingers, and then get his butt to the swing states.

Let's face it, the Bush-Republican brand is dead. Selling the old Bush
line in this economy would be like trying to sell tickets for the
return trip on the Titanic after it sank.

So McCain is not going to make this a race about ideas. After all, he
actually has voted with Bush 91 percent of the time. Perhaps that's
why his campaign manager said this election was not about issues.
McCain plainly wants this race to be about biography. His is actually
the campaign built around a cult of personality.

McCain will continue to emphasize his remarkable suffering in service
to our country. After months of research I have uncovered a heretofore
unknown fact: John McCain was in the military. I'm pretty sure he was
a POW. And I'm pretty sure Barack Obama was not. So expect to see
McCain continue to run on his past rather than America's future.

The flip side of a character-based positive message is -- you guessed
it -- a character-based negative campaign. I hate to say this, but the
McCain campaign -- and its right-wing allies -- are going to play the
politics of fear and smear.

You saw it in St. Paul: doughy Republicans scoffing at Barack Obama's
time as a community organizer -- even though Obama's work was the
embodiment of the values the GOP claims to believe in: faith-based,
family-centered, self-help, hands-on, non-bureaucratic.

If you thought you'd seen it all with Willie Horton, the vicious
attacks on Bill Clinton and his family (including John McCain himself
cruelly mocking the appearance of then-12 year-old Chelsea), or the
"swift-boating" of John Kerry, you ain't seen nothing yet. Obama's
been maligned from the right as a Muslim, an elitist, a socialist --
and that's just the warm-up act.

What to look for from Barack Obama

For his part, Barack Obama needs to drill two numbers into the heads
of every American: 91 and 134. 91 is the percentage of the time McCain
has voted with Bush, and 134 is the number of corporate special
interest lobbyists involved in the McCain campaign.

Obama will likely argue that no one who votes with Bush 91 percent of
the time is a maverick, and that someone with 134 former or current
lobbyists advising, funding or managing his campaign cannot be
considered a reformer. If Obama can shatter the image of the maverick
reformer, even McCain's heroic POW story will not be enough to win the
White House.

On the positive side, Obama will likely stress the economy, including
his plan to cut taxes for middle-class families and small business, as
well as his plan for energy independence. The key to success will be
connecting with voters.

As someone who was raised by a single mom, who knew real poverty, who
went to the best schools with scholarships and student loans, Obama is
a living testament to the power of the American Dream. He needs to
connect emotionally, not intellectually.

The kid who came up the hard way cannot allow himself to be cast as an
elitist by a guy who owns nine homes in three time zones. Joe Biden
helps enormously on this front. He may have been selected for his
foreign policy expertise, but his ability to touch the hearts of
middle-class families makes him an indispensable asset to the
sometimes professorial Sen. Obama.

All of this, of course, should be taken with a block of salt, not just
a grain. A year and a half ago, I thought the general election would
be Hillary Clinton versus Mitt Romney. No one knows what's around the
next corner, much less the dozens of hair-pin turns between now and
election day.

The most important thing to keep in mind as this campaign unfolds is
to expect the unexpected. The campaign that is more nimble, more
aggressive, more free-thinking is the one that will be able to
capitalize on the shifting terrain. The ability to improvise, whether
in sports or warfare or politics, is often the most important talent
of all.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer.

Done With Politics

Following the political race was fun for a while until things started
to take a nasty turn. Honestly I got tired of the divisive tactics at
the RNC and knowing by extrapolation that it'll only get worse in the
next two months. Hey the Democrats are no saints, and while Obama will
try to curb the punches it'll get ugly. So I'm back to my basic
purpose when the blog got started, politics may come in but won't have
such a central role as it had before.

Distance? Time? What's That?

Today got a message from an old friend saying that I haven't changed
since we last saw each other in '95. That reminded me of the song
line saying "I ain't changed but I know I ain't the same." You know
it's true. Things have changed around me, I deal with things in a
different way, but the basic me is still there. Some gray hair here
and there, a few wrinkles that were not there befeore but I'm still
the rame playful, kind and loving friend. And that my friend is a
great relief.

cabin fever...

a term popped into my mind and had to clear it. cabin fever. ouch!
sounds exactly the way that i feel. not a very good feeling. i think
i'll stick my nose in a book and take a trip to wherever the author
decides anywhere but here. at least for a while...

Back...

Finally I'm back. Been gone for a couple of days with some minor body
problems. Seems like Palin and Gustav have been stirring up a storm.
If McCain wanted to capture the media spotlight, he certainly did.
While Iwas ready to vote for Palin for President, I'm not so sure now.
The turnoff being her teenage daughter's pregnancy. Hey, my hat goes
off to mom for the support but do I really want someone who can't put
order in her house to be at the head of Nation? I don't think so.