CNN - Commentary: What to expect from McCain, Obama in 56 days

Hey, here is a good reason also why I stopped. After reading the
papers I find my ideas (or is it theirs?) mirroring each other. So
instead of doing the work that someone else is doing I'd rather spend
some time knowing myself. Besides, while the elections will be done in
the next two months my life will continue beyond that... at least I
hope so.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 9 Sep 2008 13:16:54 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: CNN - Commentary: What to expect from McCain, Obama in 56 days
To: "michaelrivera0619@gmail.com" <michaelrivera0619@gmail.com>

Sent from michaelrivera0619@gmail.com's mobile device from http://www.cnn.com.

Commentary: What to expect from McCain, Obama in 56 days

Now that both conventions are over, Labor Day is behind us and the
kids are back in school, let's take a look at how the last 56 days of
the fall campaign may shape up:

What to look for from John McCain

I still think McCain's choice of Gov. Sarah Palin was insane from a
governing point of view, but she has clearly energized the
conservative base of the GOP -- folks who have always been leery of
McCain. Her selection and the relentlessly negative convention have
fired up McCain's base.

The party of Reagan -- sunny optimism, criticism offered in folksy
witticisms and the shake of a head -- is gone. This is the party of
Giuliani and Palin: sarcastic, sneering, snotty and snide. I don't
know why, but meanness plays with the GOP base.

But the right-wing base alone will not win this race. McCain needs to
move to the middle, and the Palin pick makes that tougher. So expect
him to send Palin to small markets, use her to fire up the
right-wingers, and then get his butt to the swing states.

Let's face it, the Bush-Republican brand is dead. Selling the old Bush
line in this economy would be like trying to sell tickets for the
return trip on the Titanic after it sank.

So McCain is not going to make this a race about ideas. After all, he
actually has voted with Bush 91 percent of the time. Perhaps that's
why his campaign manager said this election was not about issues.
McCain plainly wants this race to be about biography. His is actually
the campaign built around a cult of personality.

McCain will continue to emphasize his remarkable suffering in service
to our country. After months of research I have uncovered a heretofore
unknown fact: John McCain was in the military. I'm pretty sure he was
a POW. And I'm pretty sure Barack Obama was not. So expect to see
McCain continue to run on his past rather than America's future.

The flip side of a character-based positive message is -- you guessed
it -- a character-based negative campaign. I hate to say this, but the
McCain campaign -- and its right-wing allies -- are going to play the
politics of fear and smear.

You saw it in St. Paul: doughy Republicans scoffing at Barack Obama's
time as a community organizer -- even though Obama's work was the
embodiment of the values the GOP claims to believe in: faith-based,
family-centered, self-help, hands-on, non-bureaucratic.

If you thought you'd seen it all with Willie Horton, the vicious
attacks on Bill Clinton and his family (including John McCain himself
cruelly mocking the appearance of then-12 year-old Chelsea), or the
"swift-boating" of John Kerry, you ain't seen nothing yet. Obama's
been maligned from the right as a Muslim, an elitist, a socialist --
and that's just the warm-up act.

What to look for from Barack Obama

For his part, Barack Obama needs to drill two numbers into the heads
of every American: 91 and 134. 91 is the percentage of the time McCain
has voted with Bush, and 134 is the number of corporate special
interest lobbyists involved in the McCain campaign.

Obama will likely argue that no one who votes with Bush 91 percent of
the time is a maverick, and that someone with 134 former or current
lobbyists advising, funding or managing his campaign cannot be
considered a reformer. If Obama can shatter the image of the maverick
reformer, even McCain's heroic POW story will not be enough to win the
White House.

On the positive side, Obama will likely stress the economy, including
his plan to cut taxes for middle-class families and small business, as
well as his plan for energy independence. The key to success will be
connecting with voters.

As someone who was raised by a single mom, who knew real poverty, who
went to the best schools with scholarships and student loans, Obama is
a living testament to the power of the American Dream. He needs to
connect emotionally, not intellectually.

The kid who came up the hard way cannot allow himself to be cast as an
elitist by a guy who owns nine homes in three time zones. Joe Biden
helps enormously on this front. He may have been selected for his
foreign policy expertise, but his ability to touch the hearts of
middle-class families makes him an indispensable asset to the
sometimes professorial Sen. Obama.

All of this, of course, should be taken with a block of salt, not just
a grain. A year and a half ago, I thought the general election would
be Hillary Clinton versus Mitt Romney. No one knows what's around the
next corner, much less the dozens of hair-pin turns between now and
election day.

The most important thing to keep in mind as this campaign unfolds is
to expect the unexpected. The campaign that is more nimble, more
aggressive, more free-thinking is the one that will be able to
capitalize on the shifting terrain. The ability to improvise, whether
in sports or warfare or politics, is often the most important talent
of all.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer.